Today oil prices collapsed ~5% after a large 8 million barrel inventory build. I have closed half of my position at a ~50% gain before commissions and will likely close the remainder within the next 2 weeks. The move in the oil price was likely an overreaction to the headline, and its time to get constructive on oil prices and E&P equities.
The end of 2016 markets performance was marked by a strong surge into year end. This of course includes the oil market, which benefited from an OPEC deal to reduce production and strong commitment from Saudi Arabia for further cuts. But now three reasons are creating a favourable risk/reward for shorting oil. Uncertainty regarding OPEC deal and US shale producers, speculator exuberance and complacent option market volatility.
The wild swings of the Chinese mainland market via ASHR CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF in 2015 have reserved a special place on my watch list. In essence, Chinese traders with new access to capital and leverage pushed up valuations of Chinese stocks, followed by 3 major collapses in price and government intervention finally stabilizing markets. This may become interesting again.