The aggressive run up in crude oil prices warrants a brief update on supply side fundamentals. This is outlook will cover the rest of March and early April.
In December 2015 the Fed raised their overnight rate for the first time in 8 years, and signaled that 4 more rate hikes were on the table in 2016. Shortly after market sentiment deteriorated, leading to skepticism about the central bank’s projected rate path. With data signaling that Fed should move more aggressively than the market is currently anticipates, the Fed is at a crossroads.